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Four Asian countries (China, India, Japan, and Indonesia) account for almost a third of the world economy (in purchasing power parity terms), though intra-regional growth dynamics differ. The Indian economy, which is expected to expand by 7½% annually over the next two years, has emerged as the regional growth leader amid China’s ongoing economic transformation and slowing momentum. Nevertheless, economic policy and political developments in China will remain the most influential factor shaping the regional outlook. We expect Chinese real GDP growth to decelerate to 6½% by next year, while the rest of the region is showing signs of economic acceleration, underpinned by recuperating external conditions as well as strengthening domestic demand supported by low energy prices, accommodative monetary conditions, and improving confidence stemming from structural reform efforts. Economic growth across the eight countries covered in this report will expand at an average rate of
5.2% in 2015-16 following a 4.9% expansion in 2014.

Adequate Preparedness To Respond And Adjust To Global Economic And Financial Shocks 4.9% expansion in 2014. 
Global economic growth challenges, unsynchronized monetary policy amongst major central banks, volatile price adjustments in key commodity markets as well as disruptive geopolitical events in Eastern Europe, Northern Africa, and the Middle East have heightened financial market stress around the globe and placed emerging market assets on the defensive. Core countries in theAsia-Pacific region, however,are appropriately prepared to weather temporary shocks on the back of large foreign exchange reserves, solid sovereign debt profiles, robust banking sectors, and improved external trade positions. Approaching monetary
policy normalization in the US will directly affect Asia-Pacific economies as global investors
readjust their portfolios to higher US interest rates and the US dollar maintains a strengthening path.These shifts will likely lead to bouts of elevated volatility,yet individual country fundamentals — such as government finances, external positions, and domestic household and corporate leverage — will ultimately determine riskdifferentials and exchange rate dynamics

Accommodative Monetary Conditions Maintained; Fiscal Stimulus Prospects Differ 
 
Accommodative monetary policy conditions will likely remain the norm in most Asia-Pacific countries in the months to come inlight of the current challenging global environment. While Japan maintains its aggressive quantitative easing program to escapes decades-eflationary nvironment, central banks in other countries (China, India, Australia, Thailand, and South Korea
)ave taken advantage of muted inflation and lowered benchm
ark interest rates to support economic momentum. Since HongKong’s monetary policy isvirtually tied to that of the US Federal Reserve due to its pegged exchange rate arrangement, theterritory’s interest rates are set to increase over the forecast horizon. Nevertheless,themonetary tightening in Hong Kong likely be gradual in order to minimize t
he risk of a disorderly housing market correction. The ability to support economic through fiscall stimulus in Asia-Pacific different from country to country. China, HongKong, and South Korea enjoy relatively sold public finances, while India, Japan, and Australia
will likely focus on fiscal consolidation
 
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Bond traders are pushing PT Indika Energy’s notes deeper into junk as weak coal prices dim the outlook for dividends from its mining units, according to CreditSights Inc.
The Indonesian company’s $300 million 7 percent notes due May 2018 have dropped 4.35 cents in the past six days to 84.792 cents on the dollar, Bloomberg-compiled prices show. Yields jumped to 12.613 percent from 10.869 percent. The securities have lost 10 percent in the past month as corporate dollar debt in the Southeast Asian nation gained 0.6 percent, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. index shows.
“The market seems to be pricing a two-notch downgrade into current yields,” Singapore-based analysts Raghav Bhandari and Sandra Chow wrote in a note published yesterday. “A recovery in coal prices would provide a welcome boost to the sector but we doubt prices will rebound fast enough to turn around the performance of distressed names.”
Indika’s debentures, sold at par in 2011, are ranked B1 by Moody’s Investors Service and B+ by Fitch Ratings Ltd., or four levels below investment grade, both with a negative outlook. Asian benchmark coal prices remain near the lowest since 2009, a level that was reached earlier this month.
Rewina Isnanto, a Jakarta-based spokeswoman for Indika, couldn’t immediately comment on CreditSights’ analysis when reached by phone today.

Creditor Protection

CreditSights lowered its recommendation on Indika’s bonds to marketperform from outperform on Nov. 5. Marketperform means returns are expected to be in line with Asian high-yield U.S. dollar debt, according to the research firm.
The analysts prefer notes sold by property developers to coal or industrial companies because the credit strength of most Indonesian high-yield issuers will be stable to weaker in 2015 as growth in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy slows.
Three Singapore-based units of PT Bumi Resources have filed for protection from creditors in Singapore and New York over the past two weeks while London-listed Asia Resource Minerals Plc hired advisers before $450 million of debt issued by its unit, PT Berau Coal Energy, comes due in July 2015.
Indika’s 46 percent owned unit PT Kideco Jaya Agung will probably report lower earnings in 2014, eroding its potential dividend payout by 40 percent to about $52 million versus $88 million in 2013, CreditSights said in the report, citing discussions with the Jakarta-based group.
CreditSights raised its recommendation on developer PT Alam Sutera Realty’s notes to outperform from marketperform, making the January 2019 debentures and March 2020 securities among its top picks. It also favors debt issued by industrial-estate builder PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka.
Indonesia’s housing market should improve in 2015, supported by pent-up demand and political stability, the analysts said. Both developers expect a 10 to 20 percent increase in sales next year, CreditSights said.
To contact the reporter on this story: David Yong in Singapore at dyong@bloomberg.net
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In trading on the Australian Stock Exchange this morning rose for four straight sessions after the trade yesterday closed at its highest close in the last three months ( 19/2 ) . The Sydney stock market rose while compelled market participants look at the financial statements of the companies in the market which is quite impressive .
Woodside Petroleum shares were flat after experiencing movement reported that annual net profit decreased by 41 percent . Brambles rose more than 2 percent after net profit rose by 11 percent .
Westfarmers decreased by 0.5 percent even though the company reported that net profit rose by 11 percent . Fortescue Metals rallied 1.5 percent ahead of today's release of its financial statements . Prana Biotechnology has increased sharply by 26 percent after reporting that its new drug trial success .
Australia's benchmark stock index in activities has increased quite well this morning . The S & P ASX 200 rose that looks 21:58 points, or 0.4 per cent and stood at 5414.40 points .
Analyst Research Vibiz of Vibiz Consulting estimates that the movement of the benchmark index on the Australian stock exchange in today's trading will tend to rise . ASX 200 index is expected to have movement in the range of 5390-5440 points
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Indonesia’s rupiah is set to snap its world-beating gains of the past week, trading patterns suggest, amid concern a clampdown on commodity exports will swing the nation’s trade balance back to the red.
The currency has strengthened 3.3 percent since Feb. 10 to 11,785 per dollar yesterday, sending a measure known as its 14-day relative-strength index to 24, the lowest since May 2011. Readings below 30 indicate a turnaround is likely. The rupiah also breached its Bollinger band as it climbed to a three-month high this week, adding to signs the rally may be overstretched.
December’s trade surplus was the biggest in more than two years and helped rein in a current-account deficit that spurred an exodus of funds from Indonesian assets in 2013, when the currency sank 21 percent. The nation banned shipments of unprocessed ore last month to encourage investment in smelters and refineries, a policy that Nomura Holdings Inc. and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. say led to front-loading of exports that distorted trade figures toward the end of last year.
“There’s very little room for the rupiah to gain because it has already strengthened so much,” Leong Sook Mei, the Southeast Asia head of global markets research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in Singapore, said in an interview. “The quality of Indonesia’s current-account improvement remains suspect. And of course we still have electoral risk.”
A legislative election is scheduled for April and Indonesians will vote again in July to choose a successor to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who has led the country since 2004. Joko Widodo, the reform-minded Jakarta governor who is leading in opinion polls, has yet to secure his party’s nomination to run.

Asset Inflows

The rupiah climbed 2.5 percent since Feb. 12, a day before the central bank reported that the current-account deficit shrank to 1.98 percent of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, from 3.8 percent in the previous three months. The currency rose as much as 1.4 percent to 11,658 yesterday, the strongest level since Nov. 21, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg.
The gains in the Indonesian exchange rate over the past week are the most among some 150 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Overseas investors have pumped $1.2 billion into the country’s stocks and local-currency bonds this year on the improving economic data.
The country posted a $1.5-billion trade surplus for December on Feb. 3 as exports rose 10.3 percent from a year earlier, more than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, which saw a 1.7 percent increase.

Fair Value

Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points last year to slow the economy and rein in the current-account shortfall, which ballooned to a record 4.4 percent in the second quarter. The central bank said last week the deficit in the broadest measure of trade would probably be 2.5 percent this year, from 3.26 percent in 2013.
“Because of the front-loading of the ore exports, we don’t think the trade surplus will continue in the first quarter and beyond,” Enrico Tanuwidjaja, a Singapore-based economist at Nomura, said in a phone interview yesterday.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates “fair value” for the rupiah at around 11,800 per dollar, Singapore-based strategist Mark Tan wrote in a Feb. 12 note. The U.S. bank had forecast the currency to reach that level in 12 months.
A gauge of expected fluctuations in the rupiah is the highest among its Southeast Asian peers. Three-month implied volatility rose 22 basis points, or 0.22 percentage point, to 11.31 percent yesterday. That compared with 7.26 percent for Malaysia’s ringgit and 6.65 percent for Thailand’s baht.

‘High’ Volatility

“Volatility in the rupiah could still be high in the first half,” Dian Ayu Yustina, a Jakarta-based economist at PT Bank Danamon, majority-owned by Singapore’s Temasek Holdings Pte, said in an interview yesterday. “We’re still cautious on the rupiah because the trade surplus could have been distorted.”
After the rupiah’s daily trading range breached the lower end of its Bollinger band in October and the relative-strength index fell past the 30 threshold, the rupiah weakened from that month’s high of 10,930 to a five-year low of 12,285 on Jan. 7.
Developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, the bands are used by technical analysts to identify the turning point in an asset’s trajectory. The limits represent two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average, implying that the likelihood of a currency moving outside the band is small.
The dollar’s 20-day period commodity channel index against the Southeast Asian currency dropped below minus 100 last week, suggesting the dollar was oversold, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The index was minus 226 yesterday.
The rupiah may weaken to around 12,000 per dollar in the short term and trade in a range of 11,500 to 12,000 over the next three months or so, said Koji Fukaya, chief executive officer and currency strategist at FPG Securities Co. in Tokyo.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the rupiah sees some correction from quite a sharp rally,” he said in a phone interview from Tokyo. “It may be stabilizing overall, but there needs to be technical corrections from time to time.”
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Japanese stocks for today ( 17/2 ) is closed to rise . The increase in the current market movements triggered by external factors such as the existence of an expectation that Japan's economic growth for the first quarter of this year is expected to touch the level of 2.8 % according to analysis from Bloomberg . While other positive sentiment coming from the U.S. consumer sentiment data for January are still in a position of 81.2 points or beat previous predictions where the data is expected to drop to 80.6 points position .
The Nikkei closed up 0.6 % to 14393.11 basis points . While index futures rose 64 points to 14480 bps with the support level of 14310 points and 14640 points resistant level . The broader Topix index gained 0.7 % to 1192.05 basis points .
Stocks that such increase is stock Honda rose 0.9 % to 3747 yen , Hokkaido Electric Power shares rose 3.8 % to 1026 yen , Kansai Electric Power shares rose 5.6 % to 1115 yen and Daio Paper Corp shares rise 5.5 % to 975 yen .
According to the analysis of the Division of Research in Vibiz Vibiz Consulting , the Japanese stock market is considered quite vulnerable to consolidation with thin weakness in the short term . Moreover, the strengthening of the yen against the dollar is still going on so it can put pressure on stock prices based exporter .
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Asia-Pacific stock markets closed higher , the MSCI index rose 0.7 percent to 136.29 at 17:35 in Tokyo . The index rose 1.6 percent last week backed trade data from China that beat estimates and Janet Yellen 's first official statement as head of the Federal Reserve that supports optimism about the U.S. economy .
South Korea's Kospi index rose 0.3 percent . Australian index S & P / ASX 200 gined 0.5 percent . Taiwan Taiex Index and New Zealand 's NZX 50 Index both rose 0.1 percent . Singapore 's Straits Times Index rose 1 percent . Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.1 percent , while China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9 percent .
In Indonesia, the close of trading today , ending JCI rose 47.32 points or 1.05 % from yesterday's closing level to 4555.37 . While LQ45 Index rose 1.20 % to 766.72 . CSPI today hit a record high at 4560.10 and the lowest level at 4524.53 levels .
Japan's Topix Index rose 0.7 percent after falling as much as 1 percent earlier . The economy grew less than forecast in the fourth quarter according to a report today .
Japan's gross domestic product rose 1.0 % from the previous quarter , lower than economists' forecasts Japan .
China Life rose 5.8 percent to HK $ 22.85 in Hong Kong , the biggest gain since Nov. 18 . Credit Suisse raised its rating on this company became outperform from neutral , while UBS improve its recommendation to buy from neutral .
Revenue rose gold producer after precious metal prices rose as much as 0.9 percent today , ready to reach the highest price . Newcrest Mining rose 3.6 percent to A $ 11.45 . Zhaojin Mining Industry Co. , China's second largest gold producer , climbed 2 percent to HK $ 5.54 in Hong Kong .
Shares of South Korean construction companies rose . Hope housing prices will continue to increase will benefit the industry .
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co. ( 000720 ) , China's largest builder , by market value , rose 2.8 percent to ₩ 58,000 in Seoul . GS Engineering & Construction Corp. surged 11 percent to ₩ 33,700 , the biggest advance since October 2011 .
Rakuten sank 9.5 percent to 1,499 yen in Tokyo . CLSA Asia - Pacific Markets cut its rating to underperform from buy after the company announced the acquisition of Viber .
selasti panjaitan - Vibiz securities academy
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Hong Kong shares to trading today ( 17/2 ) closed increased . Since trading this morning , the Hong Kong stock exchange is fairly positive experience in stable condition as a result of the strengthening of the majority support of leading stocks primarily based on banking and energy sectors .The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.07 % to 22535.95 basis points . While the current index futures rose 202 points to 22 516 basis points with the support level of 21,960 points and resistant level 22617 points .Stocks that rose among them is PetroChina shares rose 1.53 % to 7.94 hkd , CCB shares rose 1.67 % to 5.48 hkd , ICBC shares rose 1.46 % to 4.86 hkd and Cathay Pacific shares rose 0.52 % to 15.6 hkd .Division of Research in Vibiz Vibiz Consulting predicts that trade tomorrow for Hong Kong stock exchange consolidation will move . The lack of fundamental sentiment data released today and also her off in U.S. stocks provide less favorable conditions for investors .
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